Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble to Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties

Kieran Murphy, University of Tasmania
Denisse Fierro-Arcos, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies
Tyler Rohr, University of Tasmania
David Green, University of Tasmania
Camilla Novaglio, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies
Katherine Baker, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies
Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, University of Cape Town
Tyler D. Eddy, Marine Institute of Memorial University of Newfoundland
Cheryl S. Harrison, Louisiana State University
Simeon L. Hill, British Antarctic Survey
Patrick Eskuche-Keith, British Antarctic Survey
Camila Cataldo-Mendez, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies
Colleen M. Petrik, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Matthew Pinkerton, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research
Paul Spence, University of Tasmania
Ilaria Stollberg, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies
Roshni C. Subramaniam, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Rowan Trebilco, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Vivitskaia Tulloch, North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES)
Juliano Palacios-Abrantes, The University of British Columbia
Sophie Bestley, University of Tasmania
Daniele Bianchi, University of California, Los Angeles
Philip Boyd, University of Tasmania
Pearse J. Buchanan, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz, Marine Institute of Memorial University of Newfoundland
Marta Coll, CSIC - Instituto de Ciencias del Mar (ICM)
Stuart Corney, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies
Samik Datta, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research
Jason D. Everett, The University of Queensland
Romain Forestier, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies
Elizabeth A. Fulton, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Vianney Guibourd de Luzinais, The University of British Columbia
Ryan Heneghan, The University of Queensland

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

3-1-2025

Abstract

Climate change could irreversibly modify Southern Ocean ecosystems. Marine ecosystem model (MEM) ensembles can assist policy making by projecting future changes and allowing the evaluation and assessment of alternative management approaches. However, projected changes in total consumer biomass from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) global MEM ensemble highlight an uncertain future for the Southern Ocean, indicating the need for a region-specific ensemble. A large source of model uncertainty originates from the Earth system models used to force FishMIP models, particularly future changes to lower trophic level biomass and sea-ice coverage. To build confidence in regional MEMs as ecosystem-based management tools in a changing climate that can better account for uncertainty, we propose the development of a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble (SOMEME) contributing to the FishMIP 2.0 regional model intercomparison initiative. One of the challenges hampering progress of regional MEM ensembles is achieving the balance of global standardised inputs with regional relevance. As a first step, we design a SOMEME simulation protocol, that builds on and extends the existing FishMIP framework, in stages that include: detailed skill assessment of climate forcing variables for Southern Ocean regions, extension of fishing forcing data to include whaling, and new simulations that assess ecological links to sea-ice processes in an ensemble of candidate regional MEMs. These extensions will help advance assessments of urgently needed climate change impacts on Southern Ocean ecosystems.

Publication Source (Journal or Book title)

Earth S Future

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