Semester of Graduation

Summer 2026

Degree

Master of Civil Engineering (MCE)

Department

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Document Type

Thesis

Abstract

Above-ground storage tanks (ASTs) are critical petrochemical infrastructure com ponents in coastal Louisiana, storing crude oil, petroleum products, and other hazardous materials. Past hurricanes have repeatedly demonstrated their vulnerability to flood induced failures, resulting in large-scale spills with severe economic and environmental consequences. With climate change projected to intensify storm surges, this risk is expected to grow substantially. While the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA) developed the 2023 Coastal Master Plan (CMP) to address growing coastal hazards, its benefit-cost assessments have largely excluded petrochemical infrastructure. This thesis therefore develops a regional-level probabilistic risk assessment framework for over 8,000 ASTs across coastal Louisiana to evaluate the effectiveness of CMP surge reduction strategies and quantify their economic benefits in terms of avoided spill volumes and associated costs. The framework employs a stochastic Monte Carlo simulation approach that models hurricane occurrence as a Poisson process and characterizes flood hazard using AD CIRC+SWAN storm surge and wave simulation data generated for the CMP. Failure probabilities are estimated using a parameterized system fragility model for unanchored ASTs under concurrent surge and wave loads, and economic consequences are quantified in terms of expected annual spill volumes and their associated repair and cleanup costs. Results show that mean annual regional spill volumes under future without action (FWOA) conditions grow from approximately 8,750 m3 in 2030 to 15,600–23,700 m3 in 2070 across the moderate and higher climate scenarios, with corresponding economic equivalents rising from $0.91–0.92 billion to $1.62–2.45 billion in 2023 USD. CMP implementation reduces mean annual spill volumes by 5–31% across planning horizons and cli mate scenarios, with the greatest reductions in the Maurepas, Eastern Terrebonne, Pen chant, and Mid Barataria ecological regions. The total discounted economic benefit of the CMP to the regional AST portfolio is estimated at $9.49 billion and $7.07 billion under the moderate and higher climate scenarios, respectively, corresponding to a 3.4–6.3% improvement in the overall CMP benefit-cost ratio. These findings demonstrate that incorporating AST spill risk reduction into the CMP benefit-cost framework would meaningfully strengthen the economic justification for coastal infrastructure investment in Louisiana.

Date

7-7-2026

Committee Chair

Sabarethinam Kameshwar

LSU Acknowledgement

1

LSU Accessibility Acknowledgment

1

Download

Available for download on Saturday, July 17, 2027

Share

COinS