Semester of Graduation

Fall 2024

Degree

Master of Science (MS)

Department

Environmental Sciences

Document Type

Thesis

Abstract

Increasing flood losses in the Gulf of Mexico pose serious threats to resilience and insurability. The purpose of this study is to understand how scale, social vulnerability, risk and urban form relate to NFIP insurance coverage and flood exposure. Our multilevel models identify that flooding is significantly clustered by region and counties, especially shoreline counties. Our measures of risk suggest that the FEMA Special Flood Hazard Areas underestimates risk and exposure when compared with Flood Factor, and that there is some compensation in terms of insurance coverage, suggesting a pattern of adverse selection. Older housing stock appears both less insured and less exposed, raising questions of whether current growth patterns are increasing risk independent of environmental change. Our models suggest that census tracts with higher percentages of black residents are less insured and more exposed, and a similar pattern exists for rural areas. Our results highlight the need to seek common solutions across the Gulf of Mexico, concentrating on the most flood-exposed counties, and that specific resilience strategies may be necessary to protect areas with socially vulnerable populations, especially in rural areas. Underlying challenges exist due to the spatial relationship between exposure and social vulnerability, and potential for adverse selection in insurance markets due to different measures of risk.

Date

8-22-2024

Committee Chair

Douthat, Thomas

Available for download on Friday, August 22, 2025

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