Combining Surge and Wind Risk from Hurricanes Using a Copula Model: An Example from Galveston, Texas

Authors

Jill C. Trepanier, Louisiana State University
Hal F. Needham, Louisiana State University
James B. Elsner, Florida State University
Thomas H. Jagger, Florida State University

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

1-1-2015

Abstract

Consideration of climate-related impacts on coasts is important to ensure readiness for disaster response. Local risk of storm surge and strong winds from hurricanes affecting Galveston, Texas, is quantified using a bivariate copula model fit to observed data. The model uses a two-dimensional Archimedean copula. Parametric uncertainty (5th and 95th percentiles) is quantified using a Monte Carlo procedure. The annual probability of a hurricane producing winds of at least 50 ms−1 and a surge of at least 4 m is 1.7 percent with a 95 percent confidence interval of (1.33, 1.78) percent. The methodology can be extended to include inland flooding and can be applied elsewhere with available information.

Publication Source (Journal or Book title)

Professional Geographer

Number

446

First Page

52

Last Page

61

Recommended Citation

Trepanier, J., Needham, H., Elsner, J., & Jagger, T. (2015). Combining Surge and Wind Risk from Hurricanes Using a Copula Model: An Example from Galveston, Texas. Professional Geographer, 67 (1), 52-61. https://doi.org/10.1080/00330124.2013.866437