Biases in Assessments of Probabilities: New Evidence from Greyhound Races

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

1-1-1998

Abstract

This paper investigates biases in the perceptions of probabilities using data from the 1989 and 1994 seasons at the Woodlands greyhound park in Kansas City, Kansas. Results reveal consistent evidence that the gambler's fallacy exists. The results also reveal that gamblers overestimate the probability of a win by the favorite and the dog in the "lucky" seven position. However, the comparison also suggests some learning by bettors between the first season of operation in 1989 and the 1994 season.

Publication Source (Journal or Book title)

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty

First Page

151

Last Page

167

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