Document Type

Article

Publication Date

6-1-2003

Abstract

© 2003 The Ecological Society of America. Wildfires result in important ecological benefits to many ecosystems, but have costs associated with fire fighting and property loss. Accurate, timely forecasts of the severity of upcoming wildfire seasons could facilitate wildfire management, limiting the most destructive aspects of fires, while preserving their ecological benefits. We demonstrate an approach where time series models are used to predict the severity of the wildfire season in Everglades National Park in southern Florida 3 months and 1 year beforehand. Model predictions contained all obserations within a 90% credible interval and also anticipated severe wildfire seasons. These models may be used to implement more ecologically sound wildfire management.

Publication Source (Journal or Book title)

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

First Page

235

Last Page

239

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