A sequential rationality test of USDA preliminary price estimates for selected program crops: Rice, soybeans, and wheat

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Despite recurrent evaluations on USDA price forecasts, the performance of USDA price estimates has not previously been examined in publication. To fill the void in research to this important public information, a sequential forecast evaluation procedure is applied to selected USDA price estimates: Rice, soybeans, and wheat. The evaluation procedure reveals that the USDA price estimates are short-run unbiased; however, they are not long-run rational. In addition, short-run optimality and efficiency tests suggest that USDA price estimates need to be properly scaled and fully reflect information embodied in past prices and their estimates - a possible venue to improve the predictability of USDA price estimates for the crops. © 2009 International Atlantic Economic Society.

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International Advances in Economic Research

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