Agricultural commodity markets in the wake of the black sea grain initiative
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
10-1-2023
Abstract
This paper studies the futures market response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Event study estimates indicate that futures prices for agricultural commodities were 16% above the counterfactual within the first nine weeks after the invasion. The dynamic treatment estimates also show that futures prices began to recede after the EU Solidarity Lanes were established in May 2022. The Black Sea Grain Initiative did little to change the perception of agricultural commodity traders regarding the futures market uncertainty caused by the Russia–Ukraine war. Our ex-ante estimates challenge the prevailing narrative that the Black Sea Grain Initiative was critical in lowering prices for agricultural commodities.
Publication Source (Journal or Book title)
Economics Letters
Recommended Citation
Goyal, R., & Steinbach, S. (2023). Agricultural commodity markets in the wake of the black sea grain initiative. Economics Letters, 231 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111297