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The Rise of Tropical Wheat in the Brazilian Cerrado: Drivers, Challenges, and Implications

Author ORCID Identifier

Cassiano Bragagnolo - https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9177-3791

Marcellus Marques Caldas - https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3086-7054

Abstract / Resumen / Resumo

Over the past four decades, agricultural expansion has transformed the Brazilian Cerrado into a major breadbasket. Despite this growth, Brazil remains dependent on wheat imports. In response, government policies have promoted wheat production in the region, supported by lenient environmental regulations that allow integration with existing crops, intensifying environmental pressures. This study examines how wheat policies and regional dynamics have shaped recent expansion of wheat production in Goiás and Bahia, drawing on political economy, Ricardian rent, and von Thünen’s location theory. While agricultural expansion in the Cerrado has been widely studied, mainly in soybeans, cattle ranching, and sugarcane, wheat has recently emerged as an expanding crop in parts of the region. This study is the first to specifically examine wheat cultivation in the Brazilian Cerrado. Results show that its expansion is driven by minimum price policies, the development of new cultivars, economies of scale, domestic demand, and environmental regulations. Improved irrigation technologies could also boost productivity. Goiás and Bahia offer favorable conditions due to competitive land prices, but logistical challenges remain significant, especially in transportation. Strengthening price policies and improving infrastructure are critical for supporting sustainable growth, while addressing social and environmental impacts.

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