Revolutionary Insurgents or Conservative Reactionaries? National Liberation Army's Transnational Expansion in Colombia and Venezuela
Abstract / Resumen / Resumo
The objective of this article is to document the spatial diffusion of the National Liberation Army (ELN) in Colombia and Venezuela. Building on a comprehensive database of more than 2400 violent incidents collected by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Database (ACLED) project, the paper examines whether the ELN has expanded or relocated into Venezuela following the peace accords with the FARC in 2016. We find that the vast majority of events and fatalities involving the ELN are located in Colombia. Recent years however have seen a significant increase in armed actions by the ELN on Venezuelan soil. This expansion was facilitated by the ultimate demobilization of the FARC and the ongoing social, political and economic implosion that has wracked Venezuela since 2014. The ELN is a typical case of expansion diffusion marked by a growth of violent events and fatalities in both the country of origin of armed groups and their new destination.
El presente trabajo tuvo como objetivo la documentación de la difusión espacial del Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN) en Colombia y Venezuela. Con base en 2400 incidentes violentos provenientes de la base de datos, ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Database), el documento evalúa si el ELN ha ocasionado una expansión o reubicación hacia Venezuela desde la firma de los acuerdos de paz con las FARC en el 2016. Nuestros resultados demuestran que la gran mayoría de eventos relacionados al ELN tuvieron lugar dentro de territorio colombiano. Dicha expansión tuvo y ha tenido a su favor dos hechos importantes: la desmovilización de las FARC, y desde el 2014, la crisis socioeconómica y política venezolana. El ELN ha experimentado un caso típico de difusión expansionista. Aquello implica un aumento de fatalidades e incidentes violentos ocasionados por el ELN tanto en Colombia como en Venezuela.
Recommended Citation
Rojas, Juan D. and Walther, Olivier J.
(2022)
"Revolutionary Insurgents or Conservative Reactionaries? National Liberation Army's Transnational Expansion in Colombia and Venezuela,"
Journal of Latin American Geography
21(2): 6-33.
DOI: 10.1353/lag.2022.0019
Available at:
https://muse.jhu.edu/article/866464
