A Preliminary Assessment of Using Spatiotemporal Lightning Patterns for a Binary Classification of Thunderstorm Mode

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Abstract This study provides a preliminary, regional assessment of the viability of using spatiotemporal lightning patterns to classify storms into single- versus multi- and supercell storm modes. Total lightning flashes (intracloud and cloud-to-ground flashes) occurring during the afternoon and evening of the period May–August 2012 within an area of the central Appalachian Mountains region were grouped based on their spatial and temporal characteristics using single-linkage clustering. The resulting discrete thunderstorm clusters were characterized in terms of duration, motion, areal extent, and shape. These values were used to formulate four individual attribute scores representing the similarity to the expected values for a typical single-cell thunderstorm. The four scores were then combined into a storm index (SI) using relative weights determined through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) performed on input from operational forecasters. Of the study days, 89 (72.4%) possessed appreciable lightning, of which 36 (40%) possessed a defined minimum amount of lightning activity required for further analysis. These 36 storm days were divided into two tiers according to the distribution of median daily SI values. The tier containing the 24 storm days (66.7%) with the largest median SI values possessed statistically significant smaller values of 0–6-km wind shear [13.8 knots (kt; 1 kt = 0.51 m s−1)] versus the 12 days in the lower tier of SI values (26.5 kt). This consistency between the total lightning-based classification scheme and increased vertical wind shear associated with lightning-defined multi- and supercells, also evident in synoptic atmospheric composites, lends credibility to the procedure.

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Weather and Forecasting

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