Geographic variation in property crime rates: A test of opportunity theory
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
1-1-2005
Abstract
For more than two decades sociologists have suggested that variations in property crime rates in the U.S. are largely explained by opportunities for theft. Although well developed theoretically, existing aggregate level research has been constrained in its ability to operationalize the central components of the opportunity perspective. In this analysis, we attempt to improve on prior research in several ways. First, we introduce multiple measures for each of the central concepts of opportunity theory (motivated offenders, lack of guardianship, and suitable targets). Second, we demonstrate that our measures cleanly factor along the expected conceptual dimensions. Third, we test the ability of these factors to explain cross-sectional variation in county level rates of various property crimes. These models generally fit the data well, explaining between 66% and 75% of the variance for the more serious crimes of robbery, burglary and motor vehicle theft, and for the most part performing as expected. © 2005, Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.
Publication Source (Journal or Book title)
Journal of Crime and Justice
First Page
101
Last Page
127
Recommended Citation
Lee, M., & Alshalan, A. (2005). Geographic variation in property crime rates: A test of opportunity theory. Journal of Crime and Justice, 28 (2), 101-127. https://doi.org/10.1080/0735648X.2005.9721640