Semester of Graduation

Summer 2025

Degree

Master of Science (MS)

Department

Agricultural Economics

Document Type

Thesis

Abstract

This article investigates the relationship between temperature and precipitation variability and wholesale specialty fruit prices in the United States. Using fixed-effects panel regression and a comprehensive dataset of monthly price observations across ten major U.S. wholesale markets (Atlanta, Baltimore, Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia and San Francisco) from 2000 to 2019, we examine how weather fluctuations affect wholesale market prices for five fruits including apples, avocados, grapes, oranges, and strawberries. Our analysis categorizes temperature into discrete bins representing the number of days per month within specific temperature ranges. The results show that extreme temperatures, particularly above 80°F and below 30°F, significantly influence wholesale fruit prices. Days exceeding 80°F are associated with statistically significant price increases of up to 0.45%. Days below 30°F are also linked to price increases of 0.14% to 0.17%. Commodity-specific responses differ. Strawberries exhibit the most negative price response under heat, with prices falling by 1.14% above 80°F. Apples and oranges, in contrast, experience modest price gains. Avocados show a particularly strong price increase of 1.15% during extreme heat. These findings suggest differential sensitivity across fruit types to temperature extremes. While the underlying mechanisms are not directly tested, the observed patterns could relate to differences in perishability, storage requirements, or market structure.

Date

6-12-2025

Committee Chair

Li Qingxiao

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