Semester of Graduation

Summer 2025

Degree

Master of Science (MS)

Department

Oceanography

Document Type

Thesis

Abstract

In the 2010s, the Bonnet Carré Spillway (BCS) in southeastern Louisiana, U.S.A., experienced an unprecedented uptick in openings to mitigate the possibility of flooding, including a record double-opening in 2019. Both the environmental consequences of BCS openings associated with nutrients that run from the Mississippi River into Lake Pontchartrain and the synoptic-scale meteorological conditions that necessitate these openings are poorly understood. With the unexpectedly frequent openings in recent years and the ever-present threat of climate change, it is vital to consider the future shift of synoptic-scale climate patterns and how it can relate to BCS openings. Understanding the potential for future openings will allow local leadership to guide their decision-making processes and increase preparedness for impacted communities.

This thesis investigates the potential for BCS openings by 2100 under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 5-85 emissions scenario. A self-organizing map (SOM) was generated to classify and visualize historical atmospheric moisture patterns into 15 groups using total column water vapor. These patterns were statistically compared to BCS openings using pooled t-tests, which identified three moisture patterns that were significantly more frequent during years with BCS openings. Those findings were utilized to predict possible BCS openings (2021–2100) using projected moisture patterns from the Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2) general circulation model.

Despite the general consensus that precipitation will increase in rate and intensity, predictions of frequency of BCS openings by 2100 remains inconclusive. The frequency of the three SOM moisture patterns suspected of influencing BCS operation did not change substantially in future CESM2 simulations. Nevertheless, this research represents an important first step in considering how potential future climate changes might affect BCS openings and resulting environmental impacts.

Date

5-19-2025

Committee Chair

Miller, Paul

Download

Share

COinS