Semester of Graduation

Spring 2025

Degree

Master of Science in Computer Science (MSCS)

Department

Division of Computer Science and Engineering

Document Type

Thesis

Abstract

This paper examines risk analysis and risk management in the field of election security. The purpose of this paper is not to enumerate risks to election security or explain how they might be mitigated, but rather to understand and improve how we measure and communicate those risks.

First, I contextualize election security risks by establishing what it means for an election to be secure and I give an overview of the types of events that might threaten election security. Then, I explore different methods that we can use to model electoral risks. Existing resources for managing electoral risks use qualitative methods, but qualitative methods have many inherent problems that quantitative methods do not. To improve electoral risk management, I suggest that election administrators use the Quantitative Electoral Risk Management Tool.

The Quantitative Electoral Risk Management Tool, which I developed, uses Monte Carlo simulations to quantitatively analyze electoral risks using the same expert opinions on which existing qualitative models are based. It produces a loss exceedance curve that tells election administrators the chance their election is insecure based on the margin of victory in the election. It also supports risk management decision making by listing sets of controls that could be implemented to mitigate the enumerated risks and ranking them according to their cost effectiveness.

I surveyed six election security experts to demonstrate how election administrators could use the tool to more effectively manage risks. After participating in a brief calibration training exercise, the experts were asked to enumerate the risks to an election with which they were familiar and estimate some details about each risk. I ran the data collected in my survey through the tool to generate example loss exceedance curves and risk rankings. At the end of this paper, I make some observations about the results of my survey, discuss the advantages and limitations of my methodology and the tool, and consider how my work can be improved in the future.

Date

3-28-2025

Committee Chair

Richard III, Golden G.

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