Assessment of hazards and economic losses induced by land subsidence in Tianjin Binhai new area from 2011 to 2020 based on scenario analysis

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

3-1-2013

Abstract

Land subsidence, a major geological hazard in Tianjin, has caused serious losses. In this research, we established a numerical model to predict potential land subsidence caused by groundwater overdraft in the next decades. The model set three groundwater extraction scenarios, corresponding to (1) current rate, (2) 2 % decrease, and (3) South-to-North Water Transfer Project. Economic losses induced by land subsidence were calculated based on the three land subsidence scenarios. The results showed that with a better management plan (e. g., 2 % decrease in groundwater extraction) or with the success of the water transfer project, the economic loss could be reduced by 36 % or even 74 %. The results of this research provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development planning as well as disaster prevention policy-making of Tianjin Binhai New Area. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

Publication Source (Journal or Book title)

Natural Hazards

Number

758

First Page

873

Last Page

886

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